Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has been killed in a helicopter crash in the mountains to the northwest of the country, close to its borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The helicopter, which was also carrying Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and the Governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province Malek Rahmati, disappeared in dense fog on Sunday (May 19). Raisi was returning to Tehran from an event with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, media reports said.
Search and rescue teams working in rain and fog located the wreckage overnight. In pictures from the crash site, almost nothing of the aircraft except a part of its tail can be seen.
The death was announced from the podium of the revered mausoleum of Imam Reza, in the President’s hometown of Mashhad. IRNA, the Iranian state news agency, said Raisi had been “martyred in the line of service”.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted his condolences on X, and said India stands with Iran in its tragedy.
Who will succeed Raisi to the Iranian Presidency?
According to Iran’s Constitution, the First Vice President takes over in case the President dies or is incapacitated. This is Mohammad Mokhber, who was appointed by President Raisi to the post in August 2021, soon after he assumed the Presidency.
There are several appointed Vice Presidents in Iran, who serve in the Iranian Cabinet. The office of the First Vice President is considered to be the first among equals. Mohammad Mokhber will serve as President until an election to the post of President can be held, which must happen within the next 50 days.
First Vice President Mokhber had earlier served for 14 years as head of Setad, a powerful economic conglomerate that functions directly under the Supreme Leader of Iran, Al Jazeera reported. Under Mokhber, Setad developed Iran’s own coronavirus vaccine called Coviran Barekat, whose safety and efficacy were, however, questioned.
Why is this a delicate and difficult moment for Iran?
President Raisi, 63, was considered to be a hardline cleric, had been seen as the likely successor to Iran’s octogenarian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In his three years in power, President Raisi had worked to expand Iran’s influence in the Middle East, which included backing armed groups in several countries in the region, and to accelerate his country’s nuclear programme after the United States under President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal that western powers had struck with Tehran.
The last few months have been among the most tense for the Middle East in recent years. Iran’s decades-old hostility with Israel spilt into open aggression after Tehran launched an unprecedented aerial attack on Israel last month in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of Iranian diplomatic premises in Syria, in which a senior Iranian military leader was killed.
Under Raisi, Iran has emerged as a major source of the supply of military drones to Russia, which has contributed significantly to Russia’s successful war strategy in Ukraine.
Last year, China brokered a historic deal between Tehran and Riyadh to restore diplomatic ties, a development that signalled Beijing’s entry into big-power politics in the region, and a potentially significant shift in geopolitical equations. The US is now working on a deal with Saudi Arabia that seeks to isolate Iran in the region, but that depends crucially on cooperation from Israel.
Domestically, Raisi’s time in power has seen massive protests on the street after the death of a Kurdish woman in the custody of the religious police. The government has responded with an iron fist, crushing the demonstrations and executing many of the protesters.
Each one of these issues will now engage the Iranian leadership. No dramatic shift in position is expected, but a recalibration of the response is possible. There are, however, many moving parts in the picture, and the role of the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will be critical.
